Federal Voting – Two Party Preferred Voting Intention (%) (2016-2024)
Recent Federal Election Results
| Election Date | L-NP (%) | ALP (%) |
| May 21, 2022 | 47.9 | 52.1 |
| May 18, 2019 | 51.5 | 48.5 |
| July 2, 2016 | 50.3 | 49.7 |
| September 7, 2013 | 53.5 | 46.5 |
| August 21, 2010 | 49.9 | 50.1 |
| November 24, 2007 | 47.3 | 52.7 |
| October 9, 2004 | 52.7 | 47.3 |
| November 10, 2001 | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| October 3, 1998 | 49.0 | 51.0 |
| March 2, 1996 | 53.6 | 46.4 |
Roy Morgan Poll Two Party Preferred Trends (2024-25)
| Preferences distributed by how electors told us they should be | Preferences distributed by preference flows at the 2022 Federal Election |
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| DATE | ALP | L-NP | MARGIN | ALP | L-NP | MARGIN |
| December 8, 2024 | 48.0% | 52.0% | -4.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| December 1, 2024 | 49.0% | 51.0% | -2.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| November 24, 2024 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 51.5% | 48.5% | 3.0% |
| November 17, 2024 | 49.0% | 51.0% | -2.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| November 10, 2024 | 49.5% | 50.5% | -1.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| November 3, 2024 | 49.0% | 51.0% | -2.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| October 27, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 51.5% | 48.5% | 3.0% |
| October 20, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 53.0% | 47.0% | 6.0% |
| October 13, 2024 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| October 6, 2024 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| September 29, 2024 | 49.0% | 51.0% | -2.0% | 51.5% | 48.5% | 3.0% |
| September 22, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| September 15, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| September 8, 2024 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| September 1, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| August 25, 2024 | 49.5% | 50.5% | -1.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| August 18, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| August 11, 2024 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| August 4, 2024 | 51.5% | 48.5% | 3.0% | 51.5% | 48.5% | 3.0% |
| July 28, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| July 21, 2024 | 49.0% | 51.0% | -2.0% | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% |
| July 14, 2024 | 49.5% | 50.5% | -1.0% | 51.5% | 48.5% | 3.0% |
| July 7, 2024 | 48.0% | 52.0% | -4.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | -1.0% |
| June 30, 2024 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| June 23, 2024 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| June 16, 2024 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| June 9, 2024 | 53.5% | 46.5% | 7.0% | 53.5% | 46.5% | 7.0% |
| June 2, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| May 26, 2024 | 48.5% | 51.5% | -3.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| May 19, 2024 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| May 12, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| May 5, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% |
| Apr 28, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 5.0% |
| Apr 21, 2024 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 51.0% | 51.0% | -2.0% | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 49.5% | 50.5% | -1.0% | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% |
| Mar 31, 2024 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 51.5% | 48.5% | 3.0% | 52.0% | 48.0% | 4.0% |
Latest Results of Two Party Preferred Voting without Other/Undecided 2022-2024
| Date | Total ALP TPP | Total L-NP TPP |
| 2024 | ||
| March 10 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| March 3 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| February 25 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| February 18 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| February 11 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| February 4 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| January 28 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| January 21 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| January 14 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| January 7 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 2023 | ||
| December 17 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| December 10 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| December 3 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| November 26 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| November 19 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| November 12 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| November 5 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| October 29 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| October 22 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| October 15 | 54.0% | 46.2% |
| October 8 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| October 1 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| September 24 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| September 17 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| September 10 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| September 3 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| August 27 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| August 20 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| August 13 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| August 6 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| July 30 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| July 23 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| July 16 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| July 9 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| July 2 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| June 25 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| June 18 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| June 11 | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| June 4 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| May 28 | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| May 21 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| May 14 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| May 14 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| May 7 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| April 30 | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| April 23 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| April 16 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| April 9 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| April 2 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| March 26 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| March 19 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| March 12 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| March 5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| February 26 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| February 19 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| February 12 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| February 5 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| January 29 | 56.9% | 58.9% |
| January 22 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| January 15 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| January 8 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 2022 | ||
| December 16 | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| December 11 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| December 11 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| December 4 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| November 27 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| November 20 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| November 13 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| November 6 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| October 30 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| October 23 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| October 16 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| October 9 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| October 2 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| September 25 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| September 18 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| September 11 | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| September 4 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| August 28 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| August 21 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| August 14 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
Roy Morgan Poll Two Party Preferred Trends (2018-22)
| Date | Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote |
Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2016/19 Federal Elections |
||
| L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9-15, 2022 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 47 | 53 |
| May 2-8, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| April 25 – May 1, 2022 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| April 18-24, 2022 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 47 | 53 |
| April 11-17, 2022 | 45 | 55 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| April 4-10, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| March 28 – April 3, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| March 21-27, 2022 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| March 14-20, 2022 | 42 | 58 | 43.5 | 56.5 |
| March 3-13, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| February 24 – March 2, 2022 (Post Ukraine War) | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| February 14-23, 2022 (Pre-Ukraine War) | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| January 31 – February 13, 2022 | 43 | 57 | 44.5 | 55.5 |
| January 17-30, 2022 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| January 4-16, 2022 | 44 | 56 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| 2022 | ||||
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2021 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2021 | 43.5 | 56.5 | 45 | 55 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2021 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 46 | 54 |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2021 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 48 | 52 |
| October 16/17 & 23/24, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| October 2/3 & 9/10, 2021 | 47 | 53 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| September 18/19 & 25/26, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| September 4/5 & 11/12, 2021 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 49 | 51 |
| August 21/22 & 28/29, 2021 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 47 | 53 |
| Aug 7/8 & 14/15, 2021 | 46 | 54 | 47.5 | 52.5 |
| July 24/25 & 31/ Aug 1, 2021 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 48 | 52 |
| July 10/11 & 17/18, 2021 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 49 | 51 |
| June 12/13 & 19/20, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| May 29/30 & June 5/6, 2021 | 49 | 51 | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| March 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| February 6/7 & 13/14, 2021 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 49 |
| 2021 | ||||
| November 14/15 & 21/22, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| October 17/18 & 24/25, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| August 8/19 & 15/16, 2020 | 54 | 46 | 55.5 | 44.5 |
| July 11/12 & 18/19, 2020 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 52.5 | 47.5 |
| June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 52 | 48 |
| May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 54.5 | 45.5 |
| April 18/19 & 25/26, 2020 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 53 | 47 |
| February 29/March 1 & 7/8, 2020 | 47 | 53 | 49 | 51 |
| 2020 | ||||
| 2019 Federal Election – May 18, 2019 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 48.5 |
| May 2019 | 48 | 52 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| May 4/5, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 27/28, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 20/21, 2019 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 51 |
| April 6/7, 2019 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 48 | 52 |
| March 16/17 & 23/24, 2019 | 45 | 55 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| February 16/17, 2019 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 48 | 52 |
| February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 45 | 55 |
| 2019 | ||||
| August 25/26, 2018 | 46 | 54 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| August 24, 2018 – Scott Morrison emerges victorious in a three way leadership ballot and becomes Prime Minister | ||||
| August 18/19, 2018 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 49 | 51 |
| March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018 | 49 | 51 | 48.5 | 51.5 |
| March 3/4 & 10/11, 2018 | 46 | 54 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| 2018 | ||||
^1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election.
The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.
